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Exciting Times Ahead

Tuesday, 07 April 2009

Rabbi Dow Marmur reflects on the prospects for peace in the Middle East under pressure from President Obama.

The long anticipated scenario is becoming clearer. Judging by his speech in Turkey, Obama will put great pressure on Israel to work toward the establishment of a Palestinian state. Though Israel’s new Prime Minister has avoided speaking about “two states for two people,” partly to appease the right-wing of his coalition, partly to distance himself from the opposition’s frequent use of the phrase, but probably largely to reflect his own reluctance to work toward such a solution, he’ll now have to act on it, whether he likes it or not. By the time Obama comes to Israel in June, and after Mitchell has been working on it here for a couple of months, the issue is bound to be front and center.

Lieberman, whose smarts far outweigh his charms, has probably anticipated the scenario, which may explain his speech on the day he took office in which he distanced himself from the Annapolis agreement that commits the government of Israel toward a two-state solution, not only in theory but by taking tangible steps toward its realization.

His condition of being made Foreign Minister for entering the coalition is a further indication that he’s grooming himself for Prime Minister – and not just being the “bad cop” to Netanyahu’s “good cop,” as has been suggested. Rather, anticipating that Netanyahu will have to cave in to the Americans, Lieberman wants to style himself as the authentic right-wing alternative. In due course he’s likely to try to merge his own party, Yisrael Beiteinu, with Netanyahu’s Likud from where he came, and when the time comes, run for the leadership of the combined force.

Dare I suggest that he may be miscalculating? Before the government of Israel finally agrees to a two-state solution and in an effort to save Netanyahu’s skin, it’s likely to call for a referendum. Judging by current polls, the majority of Israelis will support it. Lieberman may then leave, whether or not his succeed to take over Likud, which will make it easier for Kadima to join a “government of unity” to be able to say that its stance has been vindicated. (Labor’s Barak may very well take credit for the agreement by telling Israelis that it was his presence in the coalition that made it all possible.)

Another reason for Lieberman’s possible miscalculation is that Obama has Congress behind him and that under his administration the influence of the evangelicals who support right-wing Israeli causes has greatly diminished.

Of course, I may be dreaming, because we’re very far from there yet. Not only will there be many snags in the protracted negotiations but, judging by the past, the Palestinians may very well miss yet another opportunity. The doctrinaire stance of Hamas that makes its recognition of Israel impossible and negotiations with Israel awkward may in the end thwart the whole enterprise. Is that what Netanyahu is hoping for? It wouldn’t be the first time that the Palestinians collude with Israeli hard liners.

But whatever happens in the end, in the meantime Israel will have to ease restrictions by opening up Gaza and the West Bank to trade and to much simpler ways of coming across the checkpoints. It’ll also have to release many Palestinian prisoners, hopefully enabling Gilad Shalit to come home.

A lot will be happening in this region in the not too distant future. Much of it may turn out to be for the better, but not without drama, pain and frustration on the way. All we can do is to watch critically and to cheer optimistically.