Olmert’s Swan Song
Wednesday, 07 January 2009
Rabbi Dow Marmur was born in Poland and spent the years of World War II in the Soviet Union before returning to Poland in 1946. He emigrated to Sweden and later moved London to study for the rabbinate at Leo Baeck College. Before moving to Canada he served as rabbi at two synagogues; Alyth in North West London and SWESRS in Essex. He now lives in Israel.
The second Lebanon war in 2005 is casting its shadow over Gaza. To start with, the Israeli defense establishment has acted on many of the recommendations of the Winograd report on the Lebanon operation. This time the armed forces were obviously well prepared and their effective and intelligence well coordinated.
Second, the media is under control. Very few journalists are allowed to cross into Gaza and thus potentially give succor to the enemy. Unlike two-and-a-half years ago, soldiers are no longer able to take their mobile phones with them into battle. Though no doubt this is a hardship, it’s also a defense asset as it prevents undesirable and half-baked information.
Third, whereas the media and enemy reinforcements could enter into Lebanon from the sea and from the north, in this war Gaza is completely sealed off from the outside, including the border with Egypt which has hitherto been the conduit for Hamas supplies. A siege isn’t a pretty thing, but it may end this war much sooner.
Though no doubt there are many other differences, some thoughts about the role of Ehud Olmert may be in order.
Most of us believed that the Winograd report was evidence that Israel lost out to Hezbollah. Now in retrospect, though we still can’t say that Israel won, the fact that Hezbollah hasn’t opened a second front in the north is significant. Despite all the bluster from Damascus and Teheran, the Galilee has remained calm.
It was Ehud Olmert, though in a sense himself a victim of the Lebanon war, who maintained all along that it wasn’t a disaster. Inter alia he stated repeatedly that, thanks to Israel’s action, Hezbollah has been diminished both within Lebanon and as a threat to Israel. There’s much to suggest that he may be vindicated.
It’s possible that he’s altogether being redeemed, at least a little. Though one would have expected him not only to resign but actually to leave office when his successor as party leader was elected, his conduct since the police investigation that will force him out after the elections next month has been remarkable. He now has emerged as a peacenik of historic proportions, both in his dealings with the Palestinian Authority an as the prime minister of Israel in the course of this his second war while in office. Gone has the empty rhetoric of 2005. He now speaks like a responsible politician.
He’s front and centre among those now actively pursuing a cease fire, albeit on better terms than the one Hamas broke a couple of weeks ago. Once again, though there may be no decisive Israeli victory, a lasting peace on its southern border may be the result. The shadow of Lebanon may turn out to be something of an example.
It may also be legitimate to speculate that one of his real achievements in this belated excursion into statesmanship would be the return of Gilad Shalit. Shalit’s release is bound to be an Israeli condition for a ceasefire. There’s no reason to feel sorry for Olmert, but as it’s very likely that in the end he’ll only be charged with some relatively minor crime, he may deserve this triumph before he finally fades away – not into obscurity, but certainly for a long vacation from politics.
In the meantime, there are bound to be publishers and ghost writers now lining up to offer their services to “help” him write his memoirs.
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